Wheat price a waiting game

Eyre Peninsula growers got an insight into the future of the Australian wheat market share from an international grain market analyst who visited Port Lincoln this week.

Rabobank head of agri commodity, markets research and global sector strategist of grains and oilseeds Stefan Vogel said Eyre Peninsula farmers could not be sure of grain prices for about six weeks, when the Russian wheat season results were more certain.

Mr Vogel said the Russian crop had seen a 20 per cent increase compared to the previous year in both 2015-16 and 2016-17.

However extremely cold weather in Russia this season meant it was unlikely to repeat the large crops from previous years.

He said if Russia had a poor wheat season it would increase prices for Australia.

Mr Vogel said one reason for low grain prices was the expansion of the Russian grain market in the Black Sea, which increased the supply of the product, hence decreasing the price of the commodity.

Stefan Vogel

Stefan Vogel

He said Australia and Russia both exported to South East Asia which could mean a price drop for Australian markets but he expected Eyre Peninsula farmers to continue to sell into South East Asia and the Middle East over the next 10 years, with Russia exporting to Sub Saharan Africa and North Africa.